Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 12.224973 13.756258 15.520913 17.733277 20.474616 23.818782 28.303997
2024-10-13 10.005202 11.762193 13.937776 16.905274 20.978014 26.593638 35.383280
2024-10-20 8.590731 10.370319 12.674042 15.992896 20.878501 28.248963 41.312888
2024-10-27 7.617304 9.370540 11.714388 15.231896 20.700040 29.580526 47.150593
2024-11-03 7.670000 9.711693 12.581175 17.180316 25.018162 39.552879 75.376960
2024-11-10 7.408140 9.571068 12.720906 18.020367 27.719827 47.822550 109.025013
2024-11-17 6.796642 8.862729 11.921620 17.188178 27.171680 49.090930 124.462835
2024-11-24 6.432919 8.484553 11.584857 17.080279 27.981221 53.849703 160.408582
2024-12-01 6.089250 8.106514 11.206779 16.837960 28.453632 58.021203 204.247030
2024-12-08 5.828066 7.832842 10.967750 16.808667 29.371401 63.962842 280.013360
2024-12-15 5.639150 7.655587 10.867586 17.019907 30.884706 72.759908 435.797985
2024-12-22 5.364097 7.324190 10.479829 16.622481 30.856729 76.408422 581.520187
2024-12-29 5.153859 7.097542 10.276916 16.618788 31.962600 85.898072 1075.643117
2025-01-05 4.846534 6.697339 9.744341 15.883236 31.005709 86.379342 1431.609255
2025-01-12 4.550872 6.301264 9.193688 15.055071 29.646950 84.398314 1699.714956
2025-01-19 4.298361 5.964049 8.727291 14.361316 28.545269 83.188118 2131.610261
2025-01-26 4.418308 6.243754 9.378776 16.134701 35.025087 130.409338 NaN
2025-02-02 4.384824 6.263229 9.556140 16.896011 38.853097 174.526751 NaN
2025-02-09 4.169325 5.960969 9.107429 16.141837 37.314147 170.727526 NaN
2025-02-16 4.045872 5.811684 8.940996 16.043915 38.103962 192.436967 NaN
2025-02-23 3.916676 5.646486 8.733546 15.823883 38.400245 210.905397 NaN
2025-03-02 3.817297 5.528676 8.610364 15.797274 39.443151 243.954305 NaN
2025-03-09 3.747258 5.458849 8.576065 15.989111 41.447156 304.570704 NaN